Dans une étude pour la revue PS : Political Science and Politics, le doctorant Philippe Mongrain et le professeur Richard Nadeau, ainsi que leurs collègues Bruno Jérôme et Véronique Jérôme, ont développé un modèle de prédiction des votes pour l'élection présidentielle américaine. Ils prédisent une victoire serrée pour le candidat démocrate Joe Biden.
EXTRAIT : Until the beginning of 2020, Donald Trump could argue in favor of his reelection by pointing to the state of the economy. The nation’s low unemployment rate (around 3.5%) compensated for his rather low approval rating. However, the deterioration of the economy caused by the COVID-19 outbreak has considerably harmed Trump’s economic record. The nationwide unemployment rate skyrocketed to 14.7% in April 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has without a doubt damaged the economy, but chaotic management of the health crisis likely increased its economic impact. In several states won by Trump in 2016, the variation in unemployment is much higher than the average variation over his time in office. In a context where the partisan balance remains relatively stable in each state compared to 2016, the economy had earlier allowed Trump to compensate for his low popularity, giving him a fair shot at reelection. According to the 2SPE Model, this is no longer the case.