Semra Sevi, Antoine Yoshinaka (Buffalo) et André Blais discutent de la difficulté des députés à se faire réélire lorsqu’ils changent de parti. Pour eux il y a effectivement une perte de voix. Cette conclusion est appuyée par leur récent article paru dans la Revue canadienne de science politique, où ils ont analysé les données de la Bibliothèque du Parlement sur toutes les élections de 1867 à 2015.
Extrait :
« We wondered if these results were driven primarily by one type of switch or another over time. Perhaps, things are different for a switch to government versus a switch to opposition. For instance, switching to government might be seen as an opportunistic move and as such voters might be more likely to punish them over individuals who switch to the opposition benches (which might be seen as motivated by principle). As reasonable as these hypotheses may sound, our results indicate that regardless of government/opposition status, switchers fare less well in more recent years than they did in the past. There is an electoral cost for both types of floor crossers. »
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