Conférence “Assessing the Accuracy of Vote Recall in the United States”, par Alexander Agadjanian (University of California, Berkeley)
How accurate is the public in reporting past vote choice? Survey researchers often record this vote recall measure, which informs popular voting analyses, polling figures, and survey methodology. However, skeptics argue poor voter memory and "winner's bias," among other issues, render this data untrustworthy. In an American context specifically, basic descriptive information on vote recall is lacking. To fill this gap in understanding, I collect data from six unique panel surveys from 1956 to 2019 to paint an over time picture of recall accuracy for American presidential vote choice. Results suggest recall ability has always been high but has steadily gotten better over time, and that winner's bias gaps have increasingly closed. In explaining recall accuracy, I assess factors identified by research outside the U.S. (e.g. cognitive dissonance and political engagement) and begin to consider new ones (e.g. voter regret). I also shed light on common political tropes, such as whether some Donald Trump voters no longer admit that they voted for him.
Organisé par la Chaire de recherche en études électorales et la Chaire de recherche du Canada en démocratie électorale.
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DATE : mardi 21 juillet, 12h-13h